IG Group (OTC: IGGHY) Faces Guidance Cut and Price Target Reductions Amid Revenue Retention Concerns

• RBC Capital maintained an "Outperform" rating for IG Group (OTC: IGGHY) despite recent challenges in its financial performance.
• The company cut its 2026 guidance, anticipating a 14% drop in third-quarter revenue, which led to a significant 27% fall in its share price.
• Panmure Liberum lowered its price target for IG Group's London-listed shares, citing concerns over decreased over-the-counter revenue retention.

The U.S.-traded stock of IG Group (OTC: IGGHY), a prominent platform for trading financial markets, recently saw its investment outlook updated. On October 5, 2026, RBC Capital maintained its Outperform rating with a hold action for the financial services provider. IG Group traded at $12.18 when this update was posted, reflecting market sentiment.

This broker rating comes after IG Group cut its 2026 guidance in an unscheduled update, impacting its market outlook. The company now expects third-quarter revenue to fall 14%, as highlighted by The Wall Street Journal. Following this warning, IG Group shares experienced a sharp decline of 27%, indicating investor concern over its financial performance.

In further stock analysis, Panmure Liberum also lowered its price target for IG Group’s London-listed shares from 2,000.00p to 1,500.00p, while keeping its buy rating, as highlighted by Proactive Investors. The London shares fell a further 2.5% to 965.00p on Monday. A price target is a broker’s estimate of where a share could trade, reflecting their view on future stock valuation.

Panmure Liberum’s analysis indicates that third-quarter over-the-counter revenue retention fell to around 70%, versus an average of roughly 80% since the second half of 2025. This suggests that IG Group retains less of the income generated by this part of its business. Consequently, Panmure Liberum cuts its 2026 revenue forecast by 8.1% to £1,175,000,000.00 and its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 18.3% to £478,800,000.00.

The broker also lowers its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast by 14.9% to 115.40p and its forecast year-end net cash by 33% to £162,900,000.00. Panmure Liberum points to lower retention rates rather than fewer customers as the primary issue: over-the-counter customer income rose around 8%, and organic first trades increased more than 25%, suggesting customer acquisition remains strong for the trading platform.