Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Stock Analysis: FSD Growth, Price Targets, and Capital Expenditure Insights

• Analyst Joseph Spak of UBS sets a $425 price target for Tesla stock.
• Despite beating free cash flow expectations, shares saw an initial gain followed by a drop after third-quarter earnings.
• Tesla reduced its full-year capital expenditure guidance to approximately $20 billion, raising questions about future investments in AI and robotics.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) makes electric vehicles and develops battery storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxis. Joseph Spak of UBS sets a $425 price target for the stock. At the $386.47 price reported at publication, Tesla trades about 10% below that target. A price target is an analyst’s estimate, not a guaranteed future price.

Tesla rises $12.76, or 3.41%, to $386.47 during the reported session. After its third-quarter earnings announcement, shares initially gain about 2% but then fall more than 3% in after-hours trading. The reversal comes despite free cash flow—money left after operating and capital costs—that beats expectations.

Tesla lowers its full-year capital expenditure guidance to approximately $20 billion from more than $25 billion. Capital expenditure covers long-term investments such as equipment and facilities. Tesla says it is spending more efficiently and plans to fund that spending mainly through operating cash flow. The cut raises questions about investment in AI, robotaxis and robotics, as highlighted by Invezz.

FSD remains another focus. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster points to roughly 250,000 new FSD subscriptions in the quarter and a 190% year-over-year increase in FSD miles driven, as highlighted by Benzinga. Munster says investors want more spending behind Tesla’s long-term plans, while the company gives a measured timeline for scaling its Optimus humanoid robot.